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The Changing Residential Patterns of the UK 1991-2001 [project complete]

Researchers

Dan Vickers

Daniel Vickers
Department of Geography, University of Sheffield

Email:D.Vickers@Sheffield.ac.uk

web:http://www.sheffield.ac.uk/geography/staff/vickers_dan

Abstract:

Area classifications are an excellent way of simplifying complex datasets into a manageable set of indicators (Voas and Williamson, 2001). They have powerful predictive powers that can be used to explain any number of demographic trends and socio-economic processes (Harris et al., 2005; Sleight, 2004). My PhD (in collaboration with the ONS) has created a classification of the UK at a very fine geography (census output areas) using data from the 2001 Census. The classification splits the UK into a hierarchy of 7, 21 and 52 groups, clustering areas that share similar socio-economic characteristics. By mapping the classification using digitized output area boundaries and Ordnance Survey background mapping, clear residential patterns can be seen throughout the UK. Clear distinctions can be made between neighbourhoods, for example on the basis of affluence, rurality or multiculturalism.

The classification can answer many questions about the residential patterns of the UK at the start of the 21st century. However, the classification cannot tell us how, if at all, these residential patterns have changed over time and how these changes are affecting current socio-economic processes and demographic trends. To find out if, and how, residential patterns have changed a means of comparison needs to be created from an earlier data source. Therefore a comparable classification will be created at the finest geography (enumeration districts) using data from the 1991 Census. The classification will be created using the same 41 variables used to create the Output Area Classification from the 2001 Census, where available. A similar number of groups to the Output Area Classification will also be aimed for in order to make the two systems as comparable as possible. When the classification of the 1991 enumeration districts is complete it will be mapped in the same way as the Output Area Classification and the residential patterns will be examined. The two classifications can be overlain with the use of GIS techniques and the patterns displayed by the two classifications can be systematically compared. It will then be possible to assess if there have been any significant changes in the residential patterns of the UK between 1991 and 2001. The effect of processes and issues such as socio-economic inequalities, multiculturalism and gentrification on these residential patterns will also be highlighted.

The principal aim of this project is to develop a general purpose classification of 1991 Census Enumeration Districts that is comparable to the existing classification of 2001 Census Output Areas. The project’s second aim will be to compare the two classifications in order to establish any changes in residential patterns over the period with a view to examining the trends and processes that have occurred.

The steps in the classification exercise are as follows:

  • Assemble the database of variables, as close to those used in the 2001 Census Output Areas Classification as possible.
  • Cluster the variables creating the same number of groups as in the OA classification.
  • Prepare statistical and visual summaries of the classifications.
  • Label the classifications with descriptions of varying lengths.
  • Map the classification using GIS
  • Overlay the classifications of the two censuses and contrast and compare using GIS techniques, looking for differences and change over the period.

The methodology is now tried and tested and has been successfully implemented in the creation of the OA classification. There were less EDs in 1991 than OAs in 2001 so there are no issues in terms of the computing power or the ability of the software to cope with the data.
Outputs will include:

  • a classification of the 1991 EDs;
  • an assessment of the changes in the residential patterns of the UK 1991-2001, paying particular attention to demographic trends and socio-economic processes at the smallest geographical scale possible.
  • publications in relevant journals (e.g. Environment and Planning A, Population, Space and Place)
  • Development of the project beyond the PDF: There is vast scope to develop the project beyond the PDF. Further classifications could be developed using 1981 and possibly 1971 data to establish how far back demographic trends and socio-economic processes began and/or when changes started to occur. Perhaps more importantly, the PDF would allow the development of a 1991 ED Classification that would be comparable not only with the 2001 OA Classification but also with Census 2011, because it will have the advantage of having a stable geography. Hence, there will be the potential to explore whether the demographic trends and socio-economic processes that the PDF project would reveal continued over at least a twenty year period, 1991-2011.

Department:

Department of Geography , University of Sheffield

Duration:

1st Jan 2006 - 31st Dec 2006

Grant Type:

Postdoctoral Fellowship

Publications

Dan Vickers' Research Findings

Vickers, D.W. and Rees, P. H. (2007) Creating the National Statistics 2001 Output Area Classification, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 170(2): 379-403.

Vickers, D.W. and Rees, P.H. (2006) Introducing the Output Area Classification, Population Trends, 125:15-29.

Presentations

Vickers, D. W. (2007) Geodemographics and academic research, An open relationship?: UK Regional Science Association Annual Meeting, Bangor, Northern Ireland, August 15-17. Ojo, A.

Vickers, D.W. and Ballas D. (2007) Geodemographics Africa: UK Regional Science Association Annual Meeting, Bangor, Northern Ireland, August 15-17.

Vickers, D.W. (2007) Open geodemographics, Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, San Francisco, April 17-21.

Vickers, D.W. (2007) Open geodemographics, Royal Statistical Society meeting on 'Exploring the use and value of the ONS Output Area Classification, Royal Statistical Society London, 2 April.

Vickers, D.W. (2007) Open geodemographics: The creation of the Office for National Statistics Output Area Classification, Geodemographics and the Social Sciences, ESRC National Centre for Research Methods workshop. ICOSS, University of Sheffield, 22 March.

Vickers, D. (2007) Changing Residential Patterns 1991-2001, Presentation at the UPTAP workshop, Leeds University, 21 March

Vickers, D.W. (2006) Open geodemographics, Market Research Society meeting Geography and People How academic theory has evolved into business benefit, London, 27 November. (invited presentation)

Vickers, D.W. (2006) Open geodemographics, Royal Statistical Society meeting on 'Exploring the use and value of the ONS Output Area Classification, Royal Statistical Society, London, 2 November.

Vickers, D.W. and Rees, P.H. (2006) Quality assuring and adding value to the 2001 Census Output Area Classification, The Third International Conference on Population Geographies, Liverpool, June 19-21.

Rees, P.H., Vickers, D.W. and Jin, J. (2006) Trends in migration to and from Scotland: An analysis, The Third International Conference on Population Geographies, Liverpool, June 19-21.

Vickers, D. (2006) The Changing Residential Patterns of the UK, 1991-2001, Presentation at UPTAP Inaugural Conference, Leeds, 30 March.