ethnicity2masthead

What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas

Researchers

Phil Rees

Phil Rees
University of Leeds

Email:p.h.rees@leeds.ac.uk

web:http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/p.rees/

Paul Norman

Paul Norman
University of Leeds

Email:p.d.norman@leeds.ac.uk

web:http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/p.norman/

Pete Boden

Pete Boden
University of Leeds

Email:p.boden@leeds.ac.uk

web:

Abstract:

This project aims to understand the demographic changes that the UK's local ethnic populations presently experience and will experience in the future. We will investigate how differences in ethnic fertility and mortality shape current and future trends, how international migration and internal migration impact the size and ethnic composition of local populations.

The project team will build projections of ethnic group populations for local areas and use the projection model to explore alternative futures.

From the 1970s to the 2000s, the UK’s demographic regime changed from “stagnation” to moderate “dynamism”. Fertility is a little higher recently; better survival mean higher numbers in older ages. However, the 2004 based GAD projection anticipates natural increase will fade, becoming negative after 2036. The main reason for regime change has been the shift from net emigration to strong net immigration. The long-term migration assumption in the 2006-based UK projections is a gain of 190,000 each year.

International migration has played an important role in altering the population’s ethnic composition. Emigration has been dominated by British citizens, while immigration has been mainly non-British. Between 1981 and 2001 in England non-White groups grew by 96% while the White group remained stationary. At sub-national level there is profound local variation in ethnic composition and change. Immigrants have come to work and settle in the UK’s cities where the bulk of opportunities are available.

The changing population and spatial dynamics of the UK’s ethnic groups will be studied in this project through the construction of population projections for local areas. Projections assess the contributions of fertility, mortality, international and internal migration processes to population change and work out their implications under sets of assumptions. The project will make new estimates of ethnic fertility because previous work reports a range of values. To make better estimates of international migration by ethnicity, we will construct from available census, survey and administrative sources a New Migrant Databank of local area international migration classified by ethnicity. The project will make estimates of ethnic mortality differences between local areas. We will use commissioned census tables of migration by ethnicity and register based migration to make estimates of the internal migration of ethnic groups.

We will build a new population projection model with associated software. The model will incorporate the following processes: migration between local areas and mixed births to mothers and fathers of different ethnicity. The model will use the different 2001 Census ethnic classifications of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. As migrants cross country borders they will be reclassified. The projection model will be used to compute (1) a principal projection aligned to the latest official national assumptions, (2) a similar projection constrained to the official projection numbers to understand the effect of constraints, (3) variant projections and (4) scenario projections exploring the effects of policies for international migration and of local/regional plans.

Successful completion of the project will radically improve our understanding of how the UK’s diverse local populations are likely to change in future.

Department:

School of Geography, University of Leeds

Duration:

October 2007- October 2009

Grant Type:

Large Research Grant

Publications

Most Publications and Presentations listed below are available as PDFs from: http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/projects/migrants/

Norman, P. (2010) Relationships between UK subnational trends in infant mortality and fertility. In Stillwell, J. and Clarke, M. (eds.) Population Dynamics and Projection Methods, Understanding Population Trends and Processes Volume 4, Springer: Dordrecht (forthcoming)

Norman, P., Rees, P., Wohland, P. and Boden, P. (2010) Ethnic group populations: the components for projection, demographic rates and trends, Chapter 14 in Stillwell, J. and van Ham, M. (eds.) Ethnicity and Integration Understanding Population Trends and Processes Volume 3, Springer, Dordrecht, in press. [PDF]

Dennett, A. and Rees, P. (2010) Estimates of internal migration flows for the UK, 2000-2007. Population Trends, submitted.

Boden, P. and Rees, P. (2010) International migration: the estimation of immigration to local areas in England using administrative sources, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (Statistics in Society), in press [link]

Boden, P. and Rees, P. (2010) New Migrant Databank: concept and development, Chapter 5 in Stillwell, J., Duke-Williams, O. and Dennett, A. (eds.) Technologies for Migration and Commuting Analysis. IGI Global, Hersey, PA

Rees, P., Wohland, P .and Norman, P. (2009) The estimation of mortality for ethnic groups at local scale within the United Kingdom, Social Science and Medicine, 69: 1592-1607, doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2009.08.015 [web link]

Rees, P .with Wohland, P., Norman, P. and Boden, P. (2009) Ethnic Population Projections: A Review of Models and Findings, Paper presented at the Seminar on Multi-attribute analysis and projections of ethnic populations, Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, Seminar Series 2 (European Science Foundation), Thorbjørnrud Hotel, Jevnaker, Norway, 3-5 June., [PDF]

Rees, P., Stillwell, J., Boden, P. and Dennett, A. (2009) Part 2: A review of migration statistics literature, pp.53-140 In UKSA, Migration Statistics: the Way Ahead? Report 4, July. London: UK Statistics Authority. ISBN: 978-1-85774-904-5. Online: http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/assessment/monitoring-reports/index.html

Rees, P., Wohland, P., Norman, P. and Boden, P. (2008) A Population Projection Model for Ethnic Groups: Specification for a Multi-Country, Multi-Zone and Multi-Group Model for the United Kingdom, Paper presented at the International Conference on Effects of Migration on Population Structures in Europe, Vienna, 1-2 December. [PDF]

Wohland, P. and Rees, P. (2008) Is it who we are or where we live? Life expectancy in Yorkshire and the Humber by ethnicity, The Yorkshire & Humber Regional Review, 18(3): 20-22. [PDF]

Tromans N., Natamba E., Jefferies J. and Norman P. (2008) Have national trends in fertility between 1986 and 2006 occurred evenly across England and Wales? Population Trends, 133: 7-19.

Norman, P., Gregory, I/, Dorling, D/ and Baker, A/ (2008) Geographical trends in infant mortality: England and Wales, 1970–2006, Health Statistics Quarterly 40: 18-29. [PDF]

Stillwell J., Hussain S. and Norman P. (2008) The internal migration propensities and net migration patterns of ethnic groups in Britain, Migration Letters, 5(2): 135-150.

Boden P. and Rees P. (2008) New Migrant Databank: Concept, development and preliminary analysis. Paper presented at the QMSS2 seminar on Estimation and Projection of International Migration, University of Southampton, 17-19 September 2008.

Rees P. and Wohland P. (2008) Estimates of ethnic mortality in the UK, Working Paper 08/04, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds.

Rees P., Norman P. and Boden P. (2008) A population projection model for ethnic groups in the United Kingdom: a specification. Draft paper, School of Geography, University of Leeds.

 

Presentations

Norman, P. (2010) Effects on rates of revising mid-year estimates. Presented at BSPS / ONS meeting on ‘ONS changes to mid-year estimates: adding it all up’, University of Leeds, 7 January.

Dennett, A. and Rees, P .(2010) Estimates of internal migration flows for the UK, 2000-07. Presented at BSPS / ONS meeting on ‘ONS changes to mid-year estimates: adding it all up’, University of Leeds, 7 January.

Boden, P .(2010) International migration - its impact upon local population estimates & projections, Presentation at the BSPS/ONS meeting on ‘ONS changes to mid-year estimates: adding it all up’, University of Leeds, 7 January.

Rees, P., Wohland, P., Norman, P. and Boden, P. (2010) How will the ethnic composition of the UK population change in the next 50 years? A projection of the ethnic populations of local areas, regions and the country, Presentation to a Stakeholder Meeting, GLA, City Hall, The Queen’s Walk, London, 6 January [PDF]

Rees, P. and Wohland, P. (2009) How will the ethnic composition of the UK population change in the next 50 years? A projection of the ethnic populations of local areas, regions and the country. Presentation to a Government Communications Network Event, Central Office of Information, London, 4 December. [PDF]

Norman, P. (2009) The estimation and application of ethnic group fertility rates in a projection of sub-national populations in the UK. Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies, Annual Conference, Brighton, 9-11 September. [PDF]

Boden, P. and Rees, P. (2009) International migration: the local impact of uncertainty in national projections. Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies, Annual Conference, Brighton, 9-11 September. [PDF]

Rees, P. and Wohland, P .(2009) What happens when international migrants settle? An analysis of the demographic future of ethnic mixing in the Presentation at the RGS-IBG Conference, Manchester, 26- 28 August. [PDF]

Wohland, P. with Rees, P. and Norman, P. (2009) Trends in Life Expectancy in the UK: How have inequalities changed for local areas in the UK and what can we expect for the future?. Presentation at the Fifths Biennial Population Geographies Conference, Dartmouth College, 6 August. [PDF]

Rees, P. (2009) Ethnic Population Projections: Review of Models and Findings presented at the Seminar Multi- Paper QMSS2 on Multiattribute analysis and projections of ethnic populations, Thorbjørnrud Hotel, Jevnaker, Norway, June 2009 [PDF]

Boden, P. (2009) International Migration-Using administrative datasets for migration analysis and estimation, Presentation at the ONS Centre for Demography, Titchfield, May. [PDF]

Rees, P. and Boden, P. (2009) What happens when international migrants settle?, presentation at UPTAP workshop, University of Leeds, 25th March

Boden, P. (2009) The New Migrant Databank, Presentation at the UPTAP-GROS Scottish Government workshop, Understanding Population Trends and Processes, Edinburgh, 12 February. [PDF]

Norman P., Stillwell J. and Hussain S. (2007) Propensity to migrate by ethnic group: 1991 and 2001. Presentation at the Sample of Anonymised Records, User Meeting, Royal Statistical Society, London, 12 November.

Rees, P., Norman, P., Wohland, P. and Boden, P. (2008) Ethnic Group Population Trends and Projections for UK Local Areas, Presentation to a Stakeholder Meeting, GLA, City Hall, The Queen’s Walk, More London, London, 18 December [PDF]

Norman, P., and Rees, P., Wohland, P., Boden, P., Stillwell, J., Dennett, A. and Hussain, S. (2008) What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends & projections for UK local areas - the components for projection, Regional Health Intelligence Forum, Yorkshire and Humber Public Health Observatory, University of York, 8 December [PDF]

Norman, P., Boden, P., Stillwell, J. and Rees, P., Wohland, P., Dennett, A., Hussain, S. (2008) Ethnic populations: the components for projection, Social Statistics Section, Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London 2 December [PDF]

Rees, P, Wohland, P, Norman, P and Boden, P (2008) A Population Projection Model For Ethnic Groups, Specification for a Multi-Country, Multi-Zone and Multi-Group Model for the United Kingdom, Presentation at the International Conference of Effects of Migrations on Population Structures in Europe, Vienna 1. and 2. December. [PDF]

Rees, P. and Wohland, P., (2008) Estimation of mortality for ethnic groups at local scale, Presentation at the Southampton Social Statistics Seminar, Thursday 20 November. [PDF]

Rees, P., Wohland, P., Norman, P. and Boden, P. (2008) Design of a subnational population projection model for ethnic groups, Group presentaiotn at the CSAP Meeting, School of Geography, University of Leeds, 14 October. [PDF]

Boden P. and Rees P. (2008) New migrant databank: concept, development and preliminary analysis. Presentation at the QMSS2 seminar on the Estimation and Projection of International Migration, University of Southampton, 17-19 September 2008. Also presented at the Office for National Statistics, Titchfield, 19 September.

Rees P. and Wohland P. (2008) Development of a projection model for ethnic groups in the UK incorporating internal and international migration and new estimates of ethnic mortality, Presentation at the QMSS2 Seminar on the Estimation and Projection of International Migration, University of Southampton, 17-19 September 2008. Also presented at the Office for National Statistics, Titchfield, 19 September.

Tromans N, Natamba E, Jefferies J and Norman P (2008) Changing subnational fertility trends in England and Wales, Presentation at the British Society for Population Studies conference, Manchester, 10-12 September.

Rees P. and Wohland P. (2008) Estimates of ethnic mortality in the UK. Presentation at the ESRC Research Methods Festival, Session: Research Methods for Understanding Population Trends and Processes using secondary data, St. Catherine’s College, Oxford, 1 July.

Rees P. (2008) Estimates of ethnic group mortality for local authorities in England. Presentation at the Greater London Authority, 13 June.

Boden P. and Rees P. (2008) New migrant databank, Presentation at the Greater London Authority, City Hall, London, 13 June.

Rees P. and Boden P. (2008) Measuring long and short-term migration, Presentation at the Joint BURISA/Statistics User Forum Conference (with the Royal Statistical Society), All Change – How Can We Get Better Statistics to Plan Local Services, Royal Statistical Society, London, 16 May.

Rees P. (2008) Design of a subnational population projection model for ethnic groups and for dealing with uncertainty in internal migration, Seminar presented at the Office for National Statistics, Titchfield, 11 April.

Rees P., Norman P. and Boden P. (2008) What happens when international migrants settle? Ethnic group population trends and projections for UK local areas under alternative scenarios. Understanding Population Trends and Processes, Annual Conference, Leeds, 18-19 March.

Rees P. (2008) Design of a subnational population projection model for ethnic groups and for dealing with uncertainty in internal migration. BSPS Day Meeting on Population Projections, London School of Economics and Political Science, 29 February.

Norman, P., Stillwell, J. and Hussain, S. (2007) Propensity to migrate by ethnic group: 1991 & 2001. Presentation at the Sample of Anonymised Records: User Meeting, Royal Statistical Society, London, 12 November [PPS]