Researchers
Abstract:
The ethnic and religious composition of the UK has been greatly diversified since the 1950s, with large-scale immigration from the new Commonwealth, from other countries outside Europe and recently from the new EU member states. This project aims to analyse ethnic and religious demographic diversity and to investigate its impact upon future population size, age-structure and the ethnic and religious composition of the UK population.
Existing statistical sources (especially the 2001 Census, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the ONS Longitudinal Survey) will be used to produce time-series of the demographic characteristics of the ethnic minority populations and religious groups up to 2006. In the absence of vital statistics by ethnic groups indirect methods will be used to estimate vital rates. These will include the ‘Own Child’ method applied to LFS and Sample of Anonymised Records household data will be used to derive fertility estimates of ethnic and religious groups. Building on previous work up to 2001, fertility rates of ethnic groups will be produced up to 2006, distinguishing between UK-born and foreign-born populations. Usually, age-specific-mortality-rate of the entire population is applied for population projections by ethnic groups. Prior attempts to produce ethnic life tables have been inconclusive. However, the ONS Longitudinal study and other sources will be used when possible to produce refined estimates. Migration rates will be based on ONS International Migration Statistics, LFS and census data and projected on various assumptions. The results will serve population projections to mid-century and beyond of the main ethnic minority populations, including mixed populations, and using cohort-component methods. Furthermore, estimates of fertility rates and other demographic information for the major religious (and non-religious) groups will be produced with a view to making preliminary projections of their future size. The potential convergence of the demographic characteristics of ethnic and religious groups will be analysed, including mixed unions as an indicator for integration.
Department:
Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford.
Duration:
Jan 2008 - Jan 2009
Grant Type:
Small Research Grant
Publications
Dubuc S. and Haskey, J. (2010, in press) Fertility and ethnicity
in the UK: recent trends, in Stillwell, J. and van Ham, M. (eds.)
Ethnicity and Integration Understanding Population Trends and Processes
Volume 3, Springer, Dordrecht.
Coleman, D. and Dubuc, S (2010, in press) The fertility of ethnic
minority populations in the United Kingdom, 1971-2006, Population
Studies, 64(1).
Dubuc, S. (2009) Application of the own-children method for estimating
fertility by ethnic and religious groups in the UK, Journal of Population
Research, 26(3): 207-225.
Presentations
Dubuc, S. (2010) Estimating fertility by ethnic group and other subpopulation,
Presentation at the ESRC Research Methods Festival, St Catherine’s
College, Oxford, 6 July.
Dubuc,
S. (2009) Fertility by ethnic and religious groups in the UK, trends
in a multi-cultural context, Paper presented at the IUSSP International
Population Conference, Marrakech, 2 October.
Dubuc, S. (2009) Fertility and religion in the UK, Paper at the British
Society of Population Studies annual conference, Brighton, September.
Dubuc,
S. (2009) Demographic manifestations of son-preference in England
and Wales, Paper at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association
of America, session on Gender, Power and Reproductive Behavior, 29
April - 2 May.
Dubuc,
S. (2009) Fertility and religion in the UK: trends and outlook, Paper
at the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, 29
April - 2 May.
Dubuc, S. (2009) Demographic
characteristics and projections of ethnic minority groups, presentation
made at UPTAP workshop, University of Leeds, 24th March
Dubuc,
S. (2008) Estimating inter-censuses fertility rates by ethnic and
religious groups using the LFS and the Own-Child Method, Paper at
APS-LFS user meeting, 2 December.
Dubuc, S. (2008) Son-preference and fertility decline: Impact on
the sex-ratio of births to India-born mothers in England and Wales,
European Population Conference, Barcelona, July.
Colemam, D. and Dubuc, S. (2008) Ethnic change in the populations
of the developed world, Paper at the European Population Conference,
Barcelona, July.
Dubuc, S. (2008) Recent trend in fertility by ethnic and religious
groups, Paper at the British Society of Population Studies annual
conference, Manchester, September.
Dubuc, S. (2008) Estimating fertility by ethnic groups, Paper at
the UPTAP/BURISA workshop, City Hall, London.
